Zhao Yao, an analyst at the Yingce Research Institute, believes that if Hillary is elected, the new president may maintain the Democratic Party’s consistent style in economic and fiscal policies, because Hillary is considered a candidate to maintain the status quo, which will have an impact on the financial market. Relatively limited. If so, it will put downward pressure on gold prices. If the election result is the election of a heterogeneous Trump among the presidential candidates, the market will continue to face the uncertainty of the new US government's policies. The demand for gold based on risk aversion will continue to rise, which will promote the rebound of gold prices. In addition, Trump once threatened to replace Yellen immediately once he took office, the Fed's monetary policy path may be disrupted. Although Trump has shown interest in a strong U.S. dollar, his concerns about his economic and political policies will inevitably cause somcme gold futures trading hourse funds to escape. A short-term rapid decline in US dollar assets and the US dollar index is possible, which is also a continuous positive for gold prices.
On the one hand, the negative interest rate policies of the Eurozone and the Bank of Japan have brought uncertainty to the financial market and market behavior; on the other hand, if the international crude oil prices continue to rebound in the future, there is a risk that inflation expectations in the United States will accelerate, which will attract funds. Continue to flow into the gold market, supporting gold prices.
Bloomberg's statistics on global gold ETF holdings show that gold ETF holdings have increased by 50 tons since January. The gold holdings of SPDRGoldTrust, the world's largest listed gold trading fund, increased to 660.3 tons, a new two-month high. The continued growth of gold ETF holdings shows signs of improvement in gold investment demand. Short covering led to a substantial increase in the net long position of gold futures. As of the end of January, the size of CFTC gold futures non-commercial net long positions has increased by nearly 40,000 lots, a monthly increase of more than 210%. Therefore, judging from the changes in the current international gold futures long positions, the closing of short positions is the main force pushing up the price of gold.
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Yesterday, the New York gold futures fell by more than 2%, falling below the important support of 1,250 US dollars per ounce, setting a new low since September 2010 and setting a new 33-month low. As of 16:30 yesterday, the international gold price had another success, reported at 1,234.99 US dollars per ounce. The price of domestic gold was lowered accordingly. As of 16:30 yesterday, domestic paper gold was 242.99 yuan/gram.
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