Recently, the rapid rise in the price of gold has surprised analysts who forecast a new low in gold prices this year. It is true that we cannot deny the possibility of another sudden drop in gold priceButt gold inlaid labels in the second half of the year, but at least objectively, the factors affecting gold prices are complex and are no longer fully controlled by mainstream Western analysts. From a trend point of view, the focus of the dominant gold price is shifting from Europe and the United States to China and India. This is a pricing power.
It is mentioned that due to the debt deadlock in the United States, the market expects that the US Federal Reserve is likely to postpone its withdrawal from the quantitative easing (QE) policy in order to reduce the adverse impact of the fiscal deadlock on the US economy, which directly benefits the rise in gold prices. On October 16, gold stocks rose against the market. Chifeng Gold (5.73%), Hengbang (4.19%), CICC Gold (3.34%), Ronghua Industrial (3.12%), Shandong Gold (2.93%) and other gold stocks The gains of the day were all over 2%. According to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the total scale of U.S. debt has grown to the current $16.7 trillion, which is equivalent to the United States’ annual gross domestic product. Among them, the US Treasury bonds held by my country accounted for 7.65% of the total US Treasury bonds and 36.5% of my country’s 3.5 trillion US dollars foreign exchange reserves. On October 15th, the Republican Party in the House of Representatives proposed a new plan that included the postponement of the medical device tax imposed on Obamacare, which was opposed by the White House and the Democrats, which cast a new shadow on the debt negotiations that had already taken a turn for the better. In anticipation that there is still room for maneuver in congressional negotiations between the two parties, current investors have not shown panic. In addition, because the United States is stuck in debt stalemate, the market expects that the Fed may wait and see for a few months before considering exiting QE. If the final bipartisan agreement of the US Congress includes more fiscal austerity, it will be difficult for the Fed to consider exiting QE. Therefore, some analysts pointed out that the US debt deadlock will delay the launch of QE, gold prices may continue to rebound in the short term, and gold stocks will become the safest haven for the A-share market. From the historical experience, the US debt ceiling issue has been the fuse for gold's rise for a long time. This time as the market's expected sentiment gradually becomes stronger, gold stocks are expected to perform another round of bull market. Among A-share listed companies, companies involved in gold can be divided into two categories. The first category is companies engaged in gold mining, such as Chifeng Gold and China Gold Gold. The other is gold jewelry companies, such as Yuyuan Mall.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index reflects the overall development of the US manufacturing industry. Because the manufacturing industry occupies a large proportion of the US GDP, the manufacturing purchasing managers index is also an important indicator for evaluating the US business environment and overall economic conditions. 50 is a watershed marking the shrinking or growth of the industry.
Let's imagine a situation first: if someone wants to give you a ring with the same workmanship, brand and weight, then you will choose platinum (platinum) or gold? I think most people will choose platinum without hesitation . Because in people's eyes, platinum should be more expensive than gold. This is evident from the fact that the bank’s platinum credit card has a higher level than the gold credit card. But is it true?
Since the two gold ETFs went public last Monday, they have encountered successive net redemptions and their scale has shrunk significantly. In the past two weeks, gold QDII has performed well, with an average return rate of nearly 2%, and its return since July has been nearly 6%. News from this newspaper (by Wu Qian from the text/table reporter) The international gold price fluctuated sharply last week. Since the listing of two gold ETFs last Monday, they have experienced net redemptions. As of last weekend, Huaan Yifu Gold ETF and Cathay Pacific Gold ETF have net redemptions The rates reached 76% and 55% respectively. Among various gold investment products such as gold ETFs, paper gold, and gold-themed QDII, gold QDII has performed relatively well in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of nearly 2%, and the return since July has counterattacked nearly 6%. Helping funds withdraw substantially. Public data shows that Huaan Gold ETF has a listed share of 456.3 million shares and Cathay Pacific Gold ETF has 155.2 million shares. According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, as of last Tuesday, the share of Huaan Gold ETF was reduced to 106 million, and the share of Cathay Pacific Gold ETF was reduced to 69 million. Compared with listed fund shares, Huaan Gold ETF was net redeemed 350 million shares, with a net redemption ratio of 76.7%, while Cathay Pacific Gold ETF redeemed a net of 866.2 million shares, with a net redemption ratio of 55.5%. As soon as the gold ETF was listed, the scale has shrunk significantly. The industry believes that one of the major reasons is to help the withdrawal of funds. A quantitative researcher at a fund company pointed out that now every ETF fund is officially listed, it will face the problem of helping funds withdraw. These funds are not intended to buy funds, but to help fund products reach a corresponding scale for smooth formation. In addition, the above-mentioned researcher stated that at present, gold ETFs do not have a short-selling profit mechanism, which means that investors can only make profits when the price of gold rises. At present, gold has not shown a clear upward trend. Under the background of the gold bear market, funds The withdrawal after the listing was also expected. From the perspective of trading volume, the trading of gold ETFs in the secondary market after the listing is extremely mixed. According to Wind data, as of the close of last Friday, the total weekly turnover of Cathay Pacific Gold ETF reached 10.85 million, with a turnover of 28.63 million, while the total weekly turnover of Huaan Yifu Gold ETF was 366 million, with a weekly turnover of as high as 965 million yuan. The world’s largest gold ETF lightened its position. Gold fell all the way to US$1180 per ounce at the end of June, and then began a slow rebound. However, the trend of gold in the past week was very weak. On the afternoon of August 2, the price of gold began to dive. The data was worse than expected, and the price of gold returned to above $1,300 per ounce. Song Qing, director of the international business department and QDII of Nuo Safety Global Gold, pointed out that after the baptism of a decline of more than 20% in the second quarter, the early shorts showed great willingness to profit and settle, bringing certain support to the gold market. We see some mid-to-long-term buying near the US$1200. We expect gold to have a chance to rebound above US$1,300, with resistance at US$1350. If it fails to break through, it will again trigger further reductions in institutional holdings. The lower support is at $1150. The increase and decrease of the SPDR gold ETF, the world's largest gold ETF, is usually regarded as one of the weather vanes of the future international gold price trend. Last Friday, the international gold price fell below 1,300 US dollars in intraday trading, and the world’s largest gold ETF-SPDRGoldTrust’s gold holdings slightly decreased by 2.41 tons last Friday to 918.64 tons, reaching a 4-year low, indicating that this gold ETF is still in the gold market outlook. not optimistic. According to statistics, since this year, SPDR has reduced its holdings of gold by 429.77 tons, which is 31.82% compared with the beginning of the year. Gold QDII has performed well in the past two weeks, and some domestic gold investment products have unsatisfactory returns. The first two gold ETFs were established less than one month ago, and both suffered temporary losses. According to fund company data, as of last weekend, the yields of Huaan Gold Easy ETF and Cathay Pacific Gold ETF since their establishment on July 18 were -2.46% and -2.26%, respectively. From July 19 to last weekend, the Au99.99 contract listed on the Gold Exchange fell by about 0.4%. Paper gold and gold ETFs are both T+0 type products. Paper gold reached the 264 line last week and showed a general decline pattern. , Friday, after the lowest price of paper gold reached the 253 line, affected by the positive gold price of non-agricultural data, the highest rebounded to the 260 line. Analysts predict that this week's paper gold fluctuates between 254 and 262, and between 256 and 260 among the communities. The operation can be based on long dips. From July 19 to last Friday, the overall price of gold T+D on the Gold Exchange did not fluctuate much, with a slight drop of nearly 0.5%. Huatai Great Wall Futures personnel pointed out that in August investors can also pay attention to futures arbitrage opportunities. The main gold and silver futures contracts and the gold and silver T+D varieties of the Gold Exchange have seen good arbitrage opportunities before this year. In the future, if the current price difference of the gold period exceeds 5 yuan/gram, it will provide better arbitrage operations. Compared with domestic gold investment products, gold-themed QDII investment in overseas markets performed better. According to public data, from July 19 to last Friday, the average yield of four gold QDII products was nearly 2%, and since July, the average yield of these four QDII products was nearly 6%. The above-mentioned persons of Huatai Great Wall Futures pointed out that gold enters the traditional peak consumption season after August, and the geo-crisis in the Middle East will also boost crude oil prices. Worries about rising inflation and strong investment demand are expected to push the price of gold to around US$1,500. Investors are recommended to be around US$1,300. Call back to buy, stop the loss at 1280 US dollars, if the gold price stabilizes at 1350 US dollars, you can increase the position again, and it is expected that the gold price will rise more than 10%. (Source: Guangzhou Daily) media_span_url('gzdaily.dayoo/html/2013-08/06/content_2345152.htm')
According to the daily technical analysis, the small Yinxian spindle closed yesterday, and the shape looked at the weak support near the current position of 1.135; the short-term moving average 5 and the 10-day moving average constituted a dead cross trend. The indicator MACD green column began to lengthen, the fast and slow line crossed at a high level and went down, and the exchButt gold inlaid labelange rate has a trend of further falling to near 1.13 points.
Although it has entered the peak gold sales season at the end of the year, it has not yet reached the real "knockout". Regarding the calm performance of Shenyang's gold-grabbing aunt, Mr. Yu, the relevant person in charge of the Huihualou gold store, said that the upcoming Christmas may trigger the first round of gold buying at the end of the year. Christmas is a very important promotional node at the end of the year. Gold stores will launch some discounts every year. Now many consumers who want to buy gold are also saving energy. Shenyang Daily reporter Guo Jinfeng
Secondly, in terms of market sentiment, the gradual fading of risk aversion is obviously another incentive for gold's plunge. First, the previous round of gold rally is closely related to the situation in Ukraine. As the situation in Ukraine gradually stabilized, the risk aversion induced by geopolitics gradually faded. Second, the position data including the position report released by the CFTC shows that the market’s previous bullish sentiment is fading, and the previous large number of long orders has not pushed the market to a satisfactory position, which is needed when closing positions. The empty list is a sharp sword to kill down the market. Third, large institutions' bearishness on the gold market outlook has also caused a certain panic in the market. Investment banks including Goldman Sachs have all opened up. Needless to say, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDRGoldTrust, has only had a pitiful 4 since entering April. The increase in positions for the second time, the reduction of holdings has reached 17 times, and the sentiment of the precious metals market outlook is very obvious.
Some analysts believe that gold has been consolidating between the descending triangles in the past month, and the price of gold needs to break through the main support level of 1309-11 US dollars/ounce (July low), or 1334.80 US dollars/ounce (50-day moving average) and US$1355 per ounce (two-month downtrend line) can return to the top to attract buyers' interest. Although the current negative interest rate environment has certain support for gold, gold is highly sensitive to interest rate hikes, because interest rate hikes will increase the holding cost of gold and support the U.S. dollar. Gold is priced in U.S. dollars.