Industry insiders said that in the fourth quarter of 2016, gold prices continued to suffer a sell-off after the U.S. election. The main reason was Trump's emphasis on infrastructure spending, which triggered a rebound in so-called risk assets, and long-term U.S. real interest rates rose, the dollar strengthened, and gold suffered aHow to trade gold futures sell-off. , The price of gold goes all the way south, but this trend may not continue in 2017, and the gold allocation is at the time.
The fund manager analyzed that from a mid-to-long-term perspective, the financial market uncertainty caused by the divergence of real interest rates and the monetary policy of global economies is the two main driving forces supporting gold prices, and will also be the main driving force for repeated fermentation during the year. factor. All signs indicate that, in contrast to the market environment that has been suppressed by deflation, the cyclical strengthening of the US dollar and rising risk appetite in the past few years, almost all factors will move in the direction that is conducive to the rise of gold prices in the future. The cyclical peaking of the US dollar, the high stock index and the accumulated risk release demand, as well as rising inflation, all indicate that gold has bottomed out in the fourth quarter of last year.
At the same time, by transferring gold, global central banks seem to have played the familiar melody before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In 2014, Germany first transferred 120 tons of gold from the New York Fed's vault home, and then the Netherlands quietly returned 122 tons of gold. In May last year, Austria also shipped almost all of its gold overseas, back to Vienna and Switzerland.
At present, Jingui has made several optimizations for the new trading model, and I believe it has been at the forefront of the industry. Through extensive communication between CITIC Group, Jingui and the China Securities Regulatory Commission and relevant authorities, we believe that the new transaction model will prove to be another innovation for us and will enable Jingui to continue to lead the market. In a more standardized market in the future, it is bound to continue to occupy an absolute advantage and a leading position, which will give our members and customers who have grown and developed more opportunities and motivation.
At the same time, in December 2013, AngloGold Ashanti also announced the layoff of more than 400 employees at its Obuasi mine in Ghana. According to foreign media survey data, there are also large miners planning to lay off 4,000 local employees in the near future.
Xinhua News Agency’s special report on May 29: Gold prices plunged and hit a three-month low. The market outlook is expected to intensify. Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Yunfu. As the market continues to warm up expectations of the Fed’s upcoming interest rate hike, international gold prices have continued to fall in the past week, and gold prices in the New York market hit a record It is a new low in the past three months, but the market still has serious disagreements on the later trend of gold, and some investment banks continue to be optimistic about the performance of gold. According to the data, by the close of the 27th, the price of gold in the New York market closed at US$1216.7 per ounce, the lowest since mid-March. It fell 3.2% from the previous week. It closed down for the fourth consecutive week, and set the largest single week in the year. Decline. The price of gold denominated in Renminbi in the domestic market also fell sharply. The gold futures contract on the futures exchange closed at 257.35 yuan per gram on the 28th, basically returning to the lower limit of the shock consolidation range since February, which was nearly 3% lower than the previous week. The spot market The quotations of thousands of pure gold jewelry from major gold shops also fell back to around 330 yuan per gram. The continued warming of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations is considered to be the main reason for the recent fall in gold prices. At the end of 2015, the Fed initiated the first rate hike in 10 years, but so far, the second rate hike has not been finHow to trade gold futuresalized. An analyst at a futures company said that if the first rate hike is more indicative of a gesture, the second rate hike may be the beginning of continuous rate hikes after the real economy improves. Therefore, not only is the Fed more cautious about policy decisions , Investors also pay close attention to the process of raising interest rates. In the past week, Fed officials have continuously signaled to the market that interest rate hikes in the next few months are possible, raising investors' expectations that the second rate hike may be finalized. Affected, the major long investors in the gold market showed signs of caution again. Gold ETF funds, which continued to increase their holdings in April, have reduced their holdings for the first time. Among them, the world's largest gold ETF fund SPDR holds 868.66 tons of gold, and it once reduced its holdings by 3.86 tons on May 25. At the same time, the net long positions of speculators in the gold futures options market have also declined. The latest data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that as of the week of May 24, the net long positions of major speculators in the New York gold market, including hedge funds and managed funds, fell by 58,000 lots. To the lowest level in two months. However, many institutions are still optimistic about the outlook of the gold market. Once the interest rate hike policy is fulfilled, the price of gold may rise again. A head of the research department of a private equity institution believes that historically, the price of gold may not fall after the interest rate hike. After the Fed opened this round of interest rate hikes for the first time, the international gold price has so far increased by 15%. In the view of HSBC analysts, the negative interest rate policy will be an important factor supporting gold prices. In the past year, Sweden, Denmark, the European Union, Japan and other economies have adopted negative interest rate policies one after another. If your economy has no problems, there will be no negative interest rate policies. In this regard, HSBC’s chief commodity analyst stated at the derivatives market forum that investors generally use gold to hedge risks. In the case of negative interest rates, the cost of buying gold is low, which helps gold prices strengthen. In addition, currency Swelling and oil prices also helped gold prices rise. (Source: Xinhua News Agency) media_span_url('news.xinhuanet/fortune/2016-05/29/c_1118949322.htm')
As gold prices fell to a seven-week low overnight, they stimulated demand to strengthen, and some non-agricultural investors chose to cover their short positions. Gold prices rebounded by nearly 1% within the day. However, most economists currently expect the non-agricultural sector to be better than expected in March, which is expected to put pressure on gold prices. Spot gold closed up. Spot gold rose by US$10.90, or 0.85%, to US$1,285.50 per ounce.
Veteran investor DennisGartman said in an interview with CNBC recently that the current performance of the gold market is very strange. Last week, the gold market suffered its biggest weekly decline in two months, and it fell for the third consecutive week. The U.S. dollar strengthened for the third consecutive week, driven by the Fed's interest rate hike expectations. Gartman believes that the background of the market shows that investors are preparing for the Fed to raise interest rates. Gartman said: There is a large influx of selling in the gold price of 1270 to 1285 US dollars per ounce, no matter which investor or institution will continue this behavior until the interest rate hike arrives. Gartman believes that if you hold gold, then the dollar price of gold should be wait and see. He said that he prefers to hold yen or euro-denominated gold, and the rise of the dollar will affect the performance of the dollar-denominated gold price. Speaking of the possibility of the Fed's interest rate hike, Gartman said: I will hesitate to hold gold in US dollars. Gartman believes that after the Fed raised interest rates for the first time this year, it can start to go long in gold, but should leave gold in the short term. Source media_span_url('finance.ce.cn/rolling/201605/23/t20160523_11873196.shtml')
In fact, judging from the current gold investment products, this risk has already emerged. For example, a gold-linked gold-plus-gold wealth management product issued by the Bank of China in June only gave an annualized return of 2% due to the failure of the gold price to rise; similarly, a bearish gold price issued by China Merchants Bank in September Financial products, because of the subsequent rise in gold prices, have also reached a deadlock.